The mutual defense pact signed on September 17, 2025, between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is more than a symbolic gesture of friendship between two long-time partners. It marks a turning point in the security architecture of the Middle East and South Asia, signaling that old assumptions about dependence on external protectors, sectarian divisions, and regional alliances are being rewritten. To understand its true significance, one must view it not as an end in itself, but as the beginning of a process that is likely to expand—and if it expands to include Iran, the implications would be nothing short of transformative for the region and the world.
For decades, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have worked closely together in matters of security, with Pakistan providing military training and expertise, and Saudi Arabia offering financial backing and political support. Yet the formalization of a binding mutual defense commitment is unprecedented. Coming in the wake of Israeli strikes, renewed Gulf instability, and growing doubts about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, the pact is a declaration that both states are prepared to reshape their security futures on their own terms. The defensive language of the agreement is clear, but its underlying message is sharper: aggression against either state will now trigger a shared response, implicitly raising the stakes for any external actor contemplating escalation.
The true weight of this pact, however, comes into sharper focus when one considers its potential expansion. Iran, long cast as Saudi Arabia’s rival in the region, has recently signaled its interest in exploring cooperative security arrangements. If Tehran were to join such a framework, the entire sectarian fault line that has defined Middle Eastern geopolitics for decades would begin to dissolve. Sunni and Shia states would be bound together by mutual defense commitments, undermining the very sectarianism that has fueled proxy wars in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, and that has torn at the social fabric of Pakistan itself through repeated sectarian terror attacks. The costs of that violence—human, economic, and political—have long weighed heavily on the region. A pact that bridges the sectarian divide would fundamentally alter the incentives for perpetuating such conflicts.
The implications would ripple far beyond sectarian relations. A defense axis that united Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran would deter external aggressors by raising the risks of unified retaliation. It would reduce the room for proxy conflicts that outside powers have historically exploited to extend influence, while recalibrating the balance of power between the region and the global powers that have long intervened in its affairs. For Washington, Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi, the emergence of a cohesive bloc that transcends sectarianism would demand a complete rethinking of strategy. For Israel, which has long relied on regional fragmentation to maintain strategic dominance, the appearance of a united front of major Muslim powers would be an entirely new reality.
Such a development would also shift the internal dynamics of the region. Terrorist groups that thrive on sectarian divides would see their recruitment narratives weakened. Trade, energy flows, and cross-border cooperation could stabilize under the umbrella of shared defense. Yet risks would remain. Binding defense commitments carry the danger that small incidents might escalate into broader conflicts, especially when nuclear capabilities are involved. The margin for error in such a system would be perilously thin.
Nevertheless, if Iran were to join Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in this pact, the shift would rank among the most profound realignments in modern Middle Eastern history. It would replace sectarian enmity with a shared security interest, diminish the influence of external powers that have long dictated the region’s fate, and open the possibility of greater stability for societies that have known little of it in recent decades. The Saudi–Pakistan pact, then, is not just a new piece of paper in the annals of diplomacy. It is the opening chapter of a story that could end with the Middle East remade—not divided by sect, but bound by a common defense.
Regional relations has been shifting for month, the attack on Qatar may accelerate them
The visit of Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister to Tehran in April 2025 marked a turning point in the Kingdom’s regional diplomacy. For the first time in decades, Saudi and Iranian leaders engaged at the level of defense institutions, signaling not just a truce between two historic rivals but a willingness to imagine a future where cooperation might blunt the sharp edges of decades of hostility. Iran even went so far as to express readiness to share some of its advancements with Riyadh, a gesture heavy with symbolism in a region where trust is scarce and the threat of confrontation always near. At the time, observers wondered if this visit was a tentative beginning of a new era or merely a tactical pause in a long-standing competition for influence.
This development must be taken in the context of recent events in the region over the past months, beginning with the Saudi-Iran deal brokered by China and culminating in the Defense Minister’s visit to Tehran last spring. That sequence of moves underscored Riyadh’s willingness to diversify its partnerships and to reduce its exposure to open rivalry with its most significant regional competitor.
The answer to where this strategy is leading may now be coming into focus with the announcement of a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The agreement goes beyond the ordinary language of cooperation: an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both. Pakistani officials openly stated that their country’s nuclear capabilities would fall within the scope of this understanding, a dramatic expansion of the security umbrella available to Riyadh. For Saudi Arabia, the pact represents a profound shift. It shows that while the Kingdom may pursue rapprochement with Iran, it is not entrusting its survival solely to goodwill. Instead, it is bolstering its deterrence with the full weight of Pakistan’s military power, including the implicit threat of nuclear reprisal.
Taken together, these two developments suggest that Saudi Arabia is crafting a more sophisticated and flexible security doctrine than at any time in its modern history. On the one hand, it seeks to cool tensions with Iran, recognizing that perpetual rivalry with its neighbor to the north has drained resources and exposed vulnerabilities. On the other hand, it has secured an ironclad alliance with Pakistan, one of the few Muslim-majority countries with nuclear weapons and one that has long had deep ties with the Saudi state. This dual track is not contradiction; it is strategy. Diplomacy with Iran lowers the risk of accidental war, while the defense pact with Pakistan strengthens deterrence against external threats, whether they come from Israel, non-state actors, or even the uncertainty of great power politics.
The implications ripple far beyond Riyadh and Islamabad. For Tehran, the April visit had offered reassurance that Saudi Arabia was not aligning exclusively with its adversaries. Yet the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact also sends a message: rapprochement with Iran will not leave the Kingdom defenseless if diplomacy falters. For India, the new reality is unsettling. New Delhi has cultivated economic and strategic ties with Riyadh, but it cannot overlook the fact that its primary rival, Pakistan, has now woven its nuclear shield into the fabric of Saudi security. The United States, too, must read these moves as a sign that its traditional role as ultimate guarantor of Gulf stability is no longer unquestioned.
What emerges is not a simple shift from one bloc to another, but the sketching of a new, multipolar security order in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is refusing to be trapped in binary choices. It is building a posture that combines dialogue and deterrence, flexibility and firmness, reassurance and readiness. If managed wisely, this could usher in a more stable balance, where conflicts are defused through diplomacy but aggression is checked by credible threats. If misunderstood, it could fuel mistrust and spark spirals of escalation. Either way, the combination of outreach to Iran and alliance with Pakistan marks a watershed moment: Saudi Arabia is no longer content to be a passive recipient of security guarantees. It is now an architect of its own defense architecture, one that may reshape the entire region.
The contagiousness of the “me first” worldview
For more than seventy years, Saudi Arabia was a reliable partner to the United States, and American foreign policy in the region was quietly shepherded by Saudi rulers. Riyadh invested heavily in Middle Eastern states that followed its lead and wielded the threat of isolation or economic pressure against those that resisted. The implicit bargain was simple: Saudi Arabia ensured stable oil flows at affordable prices, and the United States supplied the Kingdom with weapons, political cover, and security guarantees. This arrangement, resilient through wars and crises, now appears under strain.
The stress deepened during Donald Trump’s second term and his unapologetic embrace of the “America First” doctrine. The shift signaled to many regional leaders that Washington’s security commitments could no longer be taken for granted, that American support would be transactional rather than automatic. Just as the U.S. declared its right to put its own interests first, Gulf allies began to apply the same logic. What began quietly as a push to diversify economies is now unfolding as a drive to diversify military alliances. By aligning with Pakistan, engaging with Iran, and looking eastward to China, Saudi Arabia is in effect applying an “us first” principle to its foreign relations. In this sense, Trump’s posture has proved contagious, encouraging allies to think beyond the confines of U.S.-centric security and to build flexible networks that better serve their own priorities. This contagion of self-prioritization is one of the hidden forces driving the regional and global transformation now centered on the Gulf.
What emerges is not a simple shift from one bloc to another, but the sketching of a new, multipolar security order in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is refusing to be trapped in binary choices. It is building a posture that combines dialogue and deterrence, flexibility and firmness, reassurance and readiness. If managed wisely, this could usher in a more stable balance, where conflicts are defused through diplomacy but aggression is checked by credible threats. If misunderstood, it could fuel mistrust and spark spirals of escalation. Either way, the combination of outreach to Iran and alliance with Pakistan marks a watershed moment: Saudi Arabia is no longer content to be a passive recipient of security guarantees. It is now an architect of its own defense architecture, one that may reshape the entire region.
