The 2022 elections in Lebanon may change the processes of governing and that is because no traditional block or alliance secured a majority that would allow it to govern. This change is not structural since the establishment parties and political actors have maintained their level of representation mainly due to the fact that the system is designed to keep the status quo–some balance based on religious and sectarian affiliation. However, the rise of the independent block may force some change in the way the establishment politicians approach governance.
Of note, is the popular vote: Hezbollah and independent groups received the largest share of the popular vote. If that were to be used to assess public support, it will offer an opportunity for forming a government fast and on a more solid ground; otherwise, the paralysis will persist. Here are some of the numbers about the popular vote.
The figures confirm that Hezbollah is the most popular at all, with its deputies obtaining 347,171 preferential votes (with the votes of Major General Jamil al-Sayed), an increase of 3,951 votes over the number of votes it received in 2018. The head of the “Loyalty to the Resistance” bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, won the number. The highest number of preferential votes in all of Lebanon (48 thousand and 543 votes), followed by Representative Hassan Fadlallah (43 thousand and 234 votes), and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (42 thousand and 91 votes).
The “Change” (taghyir) forces were the most popular bloc after Hezbollah, as 330,527 voters voted for the 24 lists formed by these forces in various Lebanese constituencies (among them the list of representatives Osama Saad and Abdel Rahman Al-Bizri).
If popular vote were to be used to decide the path forward, regarding the selection of the heads of the government, parliament, and the president, the top vote getters will have to work together to manage the demands the Taif demands and the imperatives of the will of the people—tough but achievable task. Otherwise, we may see the reign of the longest care-taker government in the history of the country.
