Qatar’s pragmatism and realism

In the News International Relations Reasoned Comments

When four Arab states, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt issued an ultimatum in the form of 13 clear demands to Qatar, they did not even wait for it to study and respond. Instead,

they imposed land, sea, and air embargo that choked the small nation state. Only two countries came to its aid: Iran and Turkey. Turkey sent troops. Iran on the other hand, opened its borders shores, and airspace to Qatar.

A year ago, the Saudi crown prince gave up, he invited the Emir of Qatar to a summit in Saudi Arabia and declared the matter settled. The rulers of Qatar took the victory but they also took the lessons. They will not trust their future to a moody prince, and his allies. The Emir of Qatar took measured and deliberate steps to make sure that Iran will have even more incentives to come to his aid should the scenario repeat again. That strategy was sealed this week when the Emir, Sheikh Tamim, travelled to Tehran to meet its leaders and sign a long list of economic, political, cultural, and diplomatic deals.

As to not leave the Turkish ally feeling left out, Tamim left Iran to Turkey to reassure Erdogan, who himself had to review and adjust his relations with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and possibly Egypt to save the Turkish economy, that there is room for Turkey in Qatar’s new strategic plans. From the photo op and the news coverage, it would appear that Erdogan was not happy with the level of commitment Qatar is making to Turkey compared to what is being given to Iran.

Ironically, even if Qatar were to strengthen its relationship with Turkey, Turkish movement of people and goods to Qatar and back must go through Iran or through Iran-aligned neighbors to get to Qatar. Erdogan ruined his relationship with Syria when he bet on the rebels and he has a very tense relationship with Iraq because of his repeated military operations in northern Iraq. As shown by the deal Iran struck with UAE last year, Iran is a transit hub for the Gulf States if they want to seek connections to the north and northwest.

Qatar is very aware of the importance of Iran’s location, and importantly, Iran’s strategic alliances. Qatar is securing a favorable status before Saudi Arabia finds its way to normalizing relations with Iran—something that is bound to happen sooner or later given the titanic geopolitical shifts in the region and in the world.

 

 

 

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