Since breaking free from the French colonial rule, Algeria has had very uneasy relationship with Morocco, reaching the point of direct armed conflict at one point (Sep 25, 1963-4). Then, Morocco, eager to capitalize on a moment of weakness in Algeria whose army consisted of Mujahideen fighters trained to fight asymmetrical war against the French state armed forces, launched an across border attack. Algeria, aided with some of its revolutionary allies like Cuba, Egypt, and many African countries fought back, eventually ending Morocco’s incursion and laying the foundation for the eventual signing of a treaty in January 1969 by Algerian President Houari Boumediene and king of Morocco, Hassan, in the resort town Ifrane, Morocco. Since then, the border dispute was resolved, but tension remained due to Morocco’s continued occupation of Western Sahara and Algeria’s support to Frente Polisario, the Sahrawi people’s political arm fighting for independence and self-determination. The recent escalation is fueled by these two events: the border war (Sand War) and the Sahrawi people’s struggle for independence.
During the 1963 border war, Morocco mobilized some Algerian Berber leaders who preferred to have some of the western regions fall under Moroccan royal rule. Morocco’s support to Berber secessionists continue to irritate Algerian authorities. The recent escalation must be understood in these contexts.
Algeria is determined this time to push the limits of their own cold war with Morocco and perhaps force the Moroccan kingdom to settle all disputes rather than keep them simmering, which is adding uncertainty to a region in need for stability.
To that end, Algeria started first by warning Morocco of its threatening activities aimed at destabilizing the country. When Morocco ignored the warning, Algeria withdrew the ambassador from Rabat, then accused the Makhzin (the Royal Palace) of encouraging the separatist movement in Kabylia. That was met with silence, too. Algeria took the next step: it severed diplomatic relations between the two countries permanently. With no response coming from Morocco. Algeria took the more radical decision, closing the airspace last week to Moroccan aircraft and shutting down an energy pipeline to Europe that traverses Morocco.
On Tuesday, Sep. 28 2021, the Chief of the Military Staff, General Said Chanegriha, accused Morocco of being involved in anti-Algeria campaign accusing the kingdom of wide array of hostile actions:
“The Makhzin regime persists in conspiracies and intrigues and launches campaigns of subversive propaganda in order to limit Algeria’s role in the region and drain its capabilities, disrupt its development path, and attempt striking the unity of its people, to pressure them to make them abandon their fixed principles and noble values and renounce the issues of the nation. The Makhzin regime tried to ignite the fire of sedition, division and dispersal, so the enemies found their stray in some weak souls and traitors to the nation, and they recruited them as agents inside and used them as tools to reach their goal, of weakening Algeria from within.”
Still, though it is too early, Morocco did not comment on the statements of the Algerian military chief of staff.
The King’s silence is perplexing observers given that in the past, before these recent events, Morocco had responded to every measure taken by Algeria with a similar response. Not only have the Moroccan government responded to Algeria in the past, but it responded with very strong diplomatic language to Spain and Germany during the past months, accusing the two countries of being hostile in the Western Sahara conflict, even withdrawing ambassadors from Madrid and Berlin, and demanded clarifications.
Instead of matching Algeria’s serious statements, Moroccan authorities seem to be eager to calm things down, including calling on Algeria to open the land borders. Moreover, the King of Morocco went as far as offering condolences to President Abdelaziz Tebboune on the death of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and former Algerian President Abdelkader Bensalah. Instead of matching Algeria’s pressure, the Moroccan King, Mohammed VI, called on the Algerian President, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, to “work together (…) to develop fraternal relations.
Some attribute the uncharacteristic Moroccan silence and de-escalation posture to the realization that Algerian leaders might be willing to escalate beyond these measured diplomatic and economic actions, which may include eruption of a devastating war between the two parties during a time when Morocco’s Western allies are unlikely to come to its aid.
Morocco’s relations with Spain, Germany, and France are at low points. Morocco’s relations with the United States has declined after betting on the Trump administration’s support for recognizing its sovereignty over Western Sahara in return for Morocco’s joining the Abraham accord. While the Biden administration may not rescind US position on Western Sahara, it is not eager to spend any political or diplomatic capital boosting Morocco’s position. Morocco’s gamble, normalizing ties with Israel in return for a single nation’s, be it a powerful nation, recognition of sovereignty of another over disputed territory irked many African countries, and that added to deep isolation to Morocco especially in its regional environment.
In the next few months, we are likely to see more escalation from Algeria as its leaders seem to have realized that Morocco’s quiet interference in Algerian affairs is becoming more nefarious and represent a national security threat. Morocco will be forced to make a choice and either respond to Algeria’s accusations with fact and figures or take concrete steps to resolving both the status of Western Sahara and support to secessionist groups in Algeria.
