What happens in SWANA will not Stay in SWANA
by Ahmed Souaiaia
Abstract:
The ongoing crises in Syria and Turkey are deeply intertwined with broader regional dynamics, including the ongoing instability in the Southwest Asia and North Africa (SWANA) region. This article analyzes these events through the lens of the Systems Thinking Framework (STF), which emphasizes that all events are outcomes of complex systems and highlights the interconnectedness of various phenomena. By applying these principles, we can better understand how shifts in governance, regional conflicts, and geopolitical tensions shape the future of the SWANA region. This analysis will explore the current state of affairs in Syria and Turkey, examining their implications for stability and governance in a context marked by volatility and uncertainty.
The Context of Change in Syria and Turkey and the Impact thereof
Recent political developments in Turkey, particularly the protests surrounding the “Ekrem İmamoğlu case,” signify a crucial juncture for the nation. These events have raised questions about the future of democracy in Turkey and its implications for Syria, a country that has been embroiled in conflict for over a decade. Turkey’s influence in Syria has intensified following the fall of the Assad regime’s long-standing family rule, creating a complex relationship that cannot be overlooked.
As political landscapes shift within Turkey, the ramifications for Syria are profound, especially considering the emerging governance structures there. The new Syrian leadership’s inexperience and unpredictability in governance further complicate this relationship. The future of both nations will be shaped by these internal dynamics and the external pressures they face, necessitating a closer examination of their interconnected systems.
The crises in Syria and Turkey cannot be viewed in isolation; they are part of a wider landscape of instability affecting the SWANA region. The ongoing war in Gaza is a critical factor, influencing not only Turkey’s foreign policy but also its domestic political climate. The humanitarian crisis and international reactions to the conflict are reshaping public opinion in Turkey, which may pressure the government to adopt a more assertive stance regarding its foreign policy towards Syria.
In Lebanon, a factional governing system struggles to maintain stability amid economic collapse and social unrest. The presence of multiple armed groups and political factions complicates governance and exacerbates sectarian tensions. As Lebanon grapples with its challenges, Turkey and Syria must navigate their relationships with Beirut, which remains a pivotal player in the region.
Meanwhile, Iraq remains unstable following the U.S. invasion and the rise of ISIS, with ongoing tensions complicating any hopes for recovery. The fragile political landscape in Iraq, marked by sectarian divides and external influence, poses a threat to regional stability. This interconnected web of conflicts underscores the volatility of the SWANA region, highlighting how events in one country can have ripple effects across borders.
The conflict in Yemen also plays a significant role in the regional equation. As a battleground for proxy wars between regional powers, Yemen’s situation reflects broader struggles for influence among countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen further complicates regional dynamics, drawing international attention and intervention.
Moreover, the recently signed strategic relationship between Russia and Iran adds another layer of complexity. As Russia seeks to strengthen its foothold in the region, its alliance with Iran may embolden Tehran’s influence in Syria and Iraq, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. The implications of this relationship extend to Turkey, as Ankara must navigate its own interests in a rapidly changing environment, balancing its historical ties to both Russia and the West.
The internal political dynamics in both Turkey and Syria are crucial for understanding the current events. In Turkey, a potential shift in governance raises questions about how domestic politics will affect foreign policy, especially toward Syria. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has historically supported Sunni factions in Syria, viewing them as allies against the Assad regime. However, a change in leadership could lead to a reassessment of this stance, with consequences for the balance of power in Syria.
The protests surrounding the İmamoğlu case reflect broader discontent with the government, potentially signaling a shift in public sentiment. If opposition parties gain traction, they may adopt a different approach to Syrian affairs, focusing on human rights, refugee management, and regional stability. Such changes could reshape Turkey’s policy toward its neighbors, impacting the already tenuous situation in Syria.
Conversely, the new Syrian leadership, emerging from years of conflict, lacks coherent strategies and governance experience. This inexperience creates uncertainty regarding their policies and priorities, potentially leading to further instability. The unpredictability of their decisions could result in unintended consequences for both Syria and Turkey, emphasizing the need for careful navigation of these complex relationships.
As we assess the future, the implications of events in Syria and Turkey extend beyond their borders. The potential for political upheaval in Turkey could lead to significant changes in its engagement with Syria, impacting the balance of power among various factions and potentially altering the course of the conflict. Similarly, the emergence of new governance structures in Syria may prompt shifts in Turkey’s foreign policy, especially as it grapples with regional security concerns and the management of refugee flows.
The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon will likely exacerbate tensions, driving regional actors to reconsider their strategies. Turkey, for instance, may need to recalibrate its approach to the Palestinian issue, which could further influence its relations with the various factions in Syria. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has prompted Turkey to adopt a more vocal stance, which could have repercussions for its diplomatic relations with both Syria and other regional players.
The instability in Iraq and Yemen adds to the challenges facing both Turkey and Syria. The interconnected nature of these conflicts means that developments in one area can trigger reactions and adjustments in others, complicating efforts to achieve stability in the region. For instance, the rise of Iranian influence in Iraq could prompt Turkey to reconsider its security policies, particularly concerning Kurdish movements on its borders.
In addition to domestic and regional factors, external actors significantly influence the dynamics in Syria and Turkey. The United States, Russia, and Iran each have vested interests in the region, shaping their policies based on strategic calculations. The U.S.’s fluctuating commitment to the region, particularly in the context of its withdrawal from Afghanistan and its focus on countering China, has led to uncertainties in its approach to Syria and Turkey.
Russia’s military involvement in Syria has not only bolstered the Assad regime but also positioned Moscow as a key player in the SWANA region. The Kremlin’s strategic partnership with Iran complicates Turkey’s security calculations, especially regarding Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria. As the U.S. seeks to reassert its influence in the region, the competition among these powers will significantly shape the future trajectory of Syria and Turkey.
China, too, is increasingly interested in the SWANA region, viewing it as a critical component of its Belt and Road Initiative. China’s growing economic ties with Turkey and investments in infrastructure projects may shift the balance of power in the region, presenting both opportunities and challenges for Ankara and Damascus.
As the situations in Syria and Turkey continue to evolve, it is crucial for policymakers to recognize the implications of these events for governance and stability throughout the SWANA region. The volatility stemming from the wars in Gaza, Lebanon’s factional struggles, Iraq’s instability, and Yemen’s conflict necessitates a nuanced approach to regional relations.
To foster stability, it is essential for Turkey Syria and neighboring states, not just the two, to engage in constructive dialogue and cooperation, addressing shared security concerns and economic challenges. Collaborative efforts to manage refugee flows, combat terrorism, and promote economic development can help build trust and mitigate tensions in the region. Moreover, regional frameworks that encourage dialogue among neighboring countries can facilitate a more stable environment.
The interconnectedness of these crises underlines the importance of a holistic approach to governance in the SWANA region. Addressing the root causes of conflict, such as economic inequality, political disenfranchisement, sectarian and ethnic divides, and lack of respect for human rights norms is essential for building resilient societies. Empowering local communities and fostering inclusive governance models can contribute to long-term stability and peace.
The current events in Syria, Turkey, and the broader SWANA region illustrate the complexity of governance and stability amid ongoing conflicts. By focusing on the specific circumstances in each country and applying the Systems Thinking Framework, we can better understand the implications of these events for the future of the region. The volatility stemming from the wars in Gaza (which must find a political solution, not a security or military one), Lebanon’s factional struggles, Iraq’s instability, and Yemen’s conflict highlights the need for a holistic approach to regional relations.
As the situations in Syria and Turkey continue to evolve, understanding the interconnected nature of these crises will be vital in shaping a future that promotes peace, stability, and cooperation in the region. Addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts from regional and international actors to foster dialogue, cooperation, and inclusive governance. By prioritizing collective well-being over self-interest, dominance, or supremacism, the SWANA region can move toward a more resilient future for the region and the world.