What was once carefully managed behind closed doors has now spilled into the open. The escalating dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen marks one of the most serious ruptures within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since the 2017–2021 crisis with Qatar. This time, however, the stakes may be even higher: the confrontation pits two pillars of the GCC against one another, not merely through rhetoric, but on the ground, via competing allies and armed forces.
Saudi Arabia’s unusually blunt public statement expressing “regret” over what it described as Emirati support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen represents a major break with past practice. Riyadh has traditionally reserved such language for adversaries such as Iran or the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), or for moments of acute rupture such as the blockade of Qatar. Applying similar terminology to a “brotherly” Gulf state signals that the relationship has entered uncharted territory.
The Saudi accusation—that Emirati-backed forces were pushed to carry out military operations near the Kingdom’s southern borders in Hadramawt and al-Mahra—touches a red line. Border security and territorial integrity are existential concerns for Saudi Arabia, and any perceived threat emanating from a former ally carries profound strategic implications.
The gravity of this development cannot be understood without recognizing the UAE’s outsized role in the region over the past decade. Abu Dhabi has emerged as a decisive regional actor: projecting power beyond its borders, shaping local forces, and positioning itself as a key security partner across the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, and Yemen’s south.
In Yemen, the UAE has not merely participated in the Saudi-led coalition; it has helped build and sustain parallel power structures, most notably through its backing of the Southern Transitional Council. Today, forces aligned with the STC reportedly control the vast majority of southern Yemen, giving Abu Dhabi tangible leverage on the ground—leverage that Riyadh lacks despite its formal sponsorship of the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
This asymmetry explains much of the current tension. Saudi Arabia’s reliance on legal legitimacy and international recognition contrasts sharply with the UAE’s reliance on facts established by force. When legitimacy and control diverge, alliances strain—and in this case, fracture.
The Saudi ultimatum calling for the withdrawal of Emirati forces within 24 hours, issued through the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, raises the specter of an unprecedented scenario: a potential military confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, fought indirectly on Yemeni soil.
Whether such a confrontation materializes remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the unity of the anti-Houthi front has been publicly and severely damaged. The Houthis, who control northern Yemen, stand to benefit most from this disarray. A coalition divided against itself cannot credibly claim to restore stability or advance a political settlement.
Memories of the Saudi-Qatar crisis are unavoidable. That episode exposed deep ideological and strategic fissures within the GCC, shaking confidence in the organization’s cohesion and purpose. While the eventual reconciliation restored a degree of functional unity, it did not fully heal underlying mistrust.
The current Saudi–UAE dispute is arguably more dangerous. Qatar, for all its importance, was a single state facing a bloc. Today, the confrontation involves two heavyweight members whose political, military, and economic influence anchors the GCC itself. A prolonged rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would risk hollowing out the Council from within, reducing it to a formal shell rather than an effective regional framework.
There are calls for de-escalation, coordination, and a return to quiet diplomacy, and it is still possible that the crisis will be contained. However, even if tensions subside, the episode has already revealed uncomfortable truths: that Gulf unity is fragile, that shared threats do not guarantee shared strategies, and that former allies can quickly become strategic rivals.
At a time of regional realignments and global uncertainty, the public unraveling of Saudi-Emirati relations in Yemen is more than a bilateral dispute. It is a stress test for the GCC itself—and one whose outcome may redefine the balance of power in the Gulf for years to come.
