The world is facing a pivotal conflict that will separate history between the stage that preceded the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian military operation and its aftermath, due to the change created by this conflict in the global system and its repercussions on Europe and the Southwest Asia and North Africa.
First: Effects on the international system and the determinant powers in the world
The Russian military operation would represent a final blow to the international system based on traditional rules in international relations and open the door to a new era of relations, influence, policies and various international laws.
The challenge now lies in managing the conflict between states with active powers that are increasingly able to operate near or below the threshold of conventional armed warfare.
The emergence of cyber and technological developments and a new type of conflict tools that are no longer limited to conventional and strategic weapons, including nuclear.
The acceleration of the pace and spread of gray area activity globally, which poses a unique challenge to the core functions of intelligence agencies to detect and understand threats.
The institutions of the world are still unipolar, with all major international organizations being placed under the “authority” of the United States, whatever the circumstances. But Russia and China are not openly challenging that structure.
The success of the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the achievement of its political goals may lead to undermining the role of the “NATO” alliance and Washington behind it in Eastern Europe.
Russia’s recognition of the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk creates a new reality in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Second: Effects on Europe
The importance of the strategic location occupied by Ukraine as a sensitive area of contact between Russia and Europe and the rest of the NATO countries makes the effects of the war significant on Europe at all political, economic, military and security levels.
The crisis poses challenges to the Europeans in the short term in the area of gas and oil supplies, and harms the institutions and member states of the European Union.
The possibility of disintegration and the loss of the effective strategic deterrence policy of NATO, especially in the face of Russian “expansion.”
The battle may appear to be a struggle between Russia on the one hand and “NATO” on the other, but according to observers and experts, it is a struggle within “NATO” itself.
Third: Effects on Southwest Asia and North Africa
Shortage of raw materials in Southwest Asia and North Africa (popularly known as the Middle East), especially in the Arab countries, where Ukraine is a major source of grains, oils and meat.
The Russian presence in Syria is a continuation of the policy of deterrence against the West.
The Mediterranean, and specifically Syria, will represent a visible movement ground in the confrontation between Russia and NATO, so influence is extended in that region on the margins of the strategic interests of Israel, as an additional part revolves around the conflict between Russia and America over areas of influence in Central Europe.
Fourth: Exposing racism and double standard
Europe’s willingness to arm and supply Ukraine to resist Russian forces and European countries willingness to take in Ukrainian people displaced by war further exposed the double standard that the West has lived by.
First, Western nations have invaded and occupied Muslim-majority countries without UNSC authorization. They simply justified that by national interests and national security. Russia’s claim that NATO expansion into Ukraine is a threat to Russia is more real than US claiming Iraq was a national threat to the US despite the 1000’s of miles that separate the two countries.
The supply of weapons to Ukrainians is justified but Yemen, which is attacked by Saudi Arabia has no right to supply itself with weapons to resist the Saudi war. The same can be said about all the wars waged outside Europe since 1945.
